Notrump Bidding: Point count adjustments

Counting points: while it is well known the the standard 4321 point count is flawed for bidding suit contracts, (overvaluing Queens, Jacks and honors in short suits while undervaluing Aces, Tens and honors in long suits) extensive analysis has shown it to be rather good for deciding when to bid 3NT. There are only two significant adjustments worth making:

A five card suit with sufficient entries is of some help, but not the extra point many authors suggest. This seems odd, but an extra high card in your hand means one less in the opponents hand, which can make all the difference in who sets up their tricks first. 3NT is basically a race between declarer setting up nine tricks and the defense setting up and cashing five. The French Bridge Federation studied a large number of hands played by real declarers and concluded that a five card suit is worth 0.4 points at notrump, basically half the value of a Jack.

Tens likewise are ignored in the basic point count but are also worth about half a point. An average hand would have one ten, so here's a simple adjustment scheme for opening and raising notrump bids:

Count how many tens you have, and add one "ten" for a five card suit, provided the hand has some potential entries. Deduct half a point for no ten or five card suit. Add half a point for each extra ten. Although this potentially allows you to upgrade a hand by two points if you have a five card suit and all four tens, in practice I would not add more than one point. So, with a basic point count of 15, you may downgrade to 14.5 or upgrade to as much as 16.0 .

Now what do you do with those half points? As opener, I suggest rounding down, which gives us the following:

Open 1 of suit and rebid 1NT with 12.0 to 14.5.
Open 1NT with 15.0 to 17.5.
Open 1 of a suit and rebid 2NT with 18.0 to 19.5.
Open 2NT with 20.0 to 21.5.
Open 2C with 22.0 + .

If you prefer, you may want to round Aceless hands down and hands with at least one Ace and at least three total Aces and Nines up. With one Ace and only one or two Aces and Nines, round toward the basic point count: KJx Q10x KJ9xx Ax starts as 14 points. You add half a point since you have both a Ten and a five card suit. Should you open a 15-17 notrump? With only one Ace and one Nine, I wouldn't. Most of the field will not be opening 1NT and this is not a "clear-cut " upgrade. Add another Ten or a Nine or two and the hand becomes significantly better than an average 14 count.

No matter what your skill level, you should recognize that KQJx Kx QJx QJx is worth significantly less than 15 points, while AJ10 Kx Q109xx A10x is worth significantly more than 14. The 4321 count assumes an average number of Aces, Tens and Nines, which will be more or less the case for the majority of hands.