Friday, January 31st 2014

Board 8 West Deals None Vul	♠ A Q 3 ♥ J 9 ♦ A Q 8 5 2 ♣ K 10 4
♠ K 10 8 2 ♥ A 7 3 ♦ J ♣ J 9 8 7 2	N W E S	♠ J 7 5 4 ♥ Q 8 6 2 ♦ 10 9 4 ♣ Q 5
	♠ 9 6 ♥ K 10 5 4 ♦ K 7 6 3 ♣ A 6 3

North opens 1NT (15-17); South bids 2C (Stayman) and then 3NT over North’s 2D reply. East assumes 25 hcp or so for declarer and dummy, leaving partner around 8-10. When I expect partner to have 8+ hcp I try to make an optimistic lead, hoping to catch a useful honor. The bidding suggests South has one or both majors and North has one or both minors; not much help there. All in all a low heart, “fourth from your longest and strongest”, looks as good as anything. One inference is that partner might’ve doubled 2C with good clubs so there is no reason to lead clubs hoping to find partner’s long suit. The heart lead proves unlucky; declarer ducks to West’s Ace and can later finesse East’s Queen (and West’s King of spades) for eleven tricks. Also, the defense may have trouble discarding; West must guard clubs, East must keep hearts, and one of them must keep three spades. Note that declarer can play the hearts himself; no lead really hurts, but the Queen of clubs gives him a chance for an extra trick if he can later guess that East does not also have the Jack. +490 for N/S should be an excellent board, not cause for wondering if you missed slam.

Board 12 West Deals N-S Vul	♠ K 10 8 5 2 ♥ 10 ♦ J 8 7 ♣ K Q 10 4
♠ 3 ♥ K Q 7 6 3 ♦ K Q 6 5 3 2 ♣ 2	N W E S	♠ A J 9 7 ♥ A 8 5 2 ♦ 10 ♣ A J 6 3
	♠ Q 6 4 ♥ J 9 4 ♦ A 9 4 ♣ 9 8 7 5

West has a wild 1561 hand; is worth an opening bid? Even after deducting for no Ace the hand counts 13 Goren points (equivalently, Rule of 20) with two quick tricks and values concentrated in the long suits. I think West should bid something, 1D or 1H or 2D (if that’s weak) rather than pass. Opening 2D carries the greatest risk of missing a heart fit, but most of the time you’ll be outbid in spades anyway and it won’t matter much which red suit you open. Sometimes, however, it does. If you open at the one level, which is better – the long suit or the major? Ideally with 5-6 shape you open the longest suit and then bid and rebid the five-bagger, thereby suggesting six in the first suit. But that involves reversing and greatly overstates your high card strength. As a practical matter, you must decide to treat 5-6 hands as either 5-5 or 4-6. You can open hearts, bid and (auction permitting) rebid the diamonds to show 5-5. Or you can open diamonds and rebid diamonds, ignoring the hearts unless partner bids them. Often the relative suit quality can be a factor, but here the two suits are nearly identical and preferring the major is probably best.

West opens 1H, North bids 1S and East should either cue-bid 2S as a forcing raise (invitational or better values, including at least 10 hcp) or bid 4D as a splinter (game-forcing raise, 10+ hcp, 4+ hearts, 0-1 diamonds.) I generally treat splinters as “on” in competition if the bid is a jump and would’ve been an obvious splinter without the overcall. It’s important to discuss exactly when splinters apply – nothing worse than misreading a singleton as a long suit! Some players may jump directly to 4H for lack of any better alternative, but that bid is best used for hands with good shape and support but fewer than 10 hcp. That can be important if partner has slam ambitions or if the enemy compete further.

South is too weak and flat to compete despite his spade support. Some might double 2S to show support, but as partner will be on lead I think that double should promise the Ace or King of his suit (regardless of length.) Likewise South might double 4D for a lead but I don’t think there is any compelling reason for South to want that lead. It might allow South to make a good switch after seeing dummy, or it might set up discards for declarer if he has the King or KQ of diamonds.

After the splinter, West retreats to 4H, wishing he had the Ace of diamonds rather than KQ. But he expects to set the diamonds up by ruffing in dummy and should make if partner has at least one Ace. Over the less descriptive 2S cue, West is uncertain how many trumps East has and fears losing control of the hand on a 5-3 fit with a 4-1 trump break. This is why experts strive to distinguish between three and four card support – a shapely hand like West’s improves greatly the more trumps East has. West can make a 3D game try over 2S and East, of course, bids game.

This is one of three hands my partner and I reached slam on. West opened 1D, North passed (vulnerable with a shaky suit), East replied 1H and West leaped to 4H! That’s quite a revaluation, from 10 hcp to 20 in value. Is it justified? Losing trick counters might rate West’s hand as “four losers”, but neither Queen is balanced by an Ace so five is more reasonable. That’s still fits the guideline for a game raise. As a practical matter it is probably right to bid game with West’s high-offense, low-defense hand and the known 9+ card fit; biggest problem is that huge range of hands that might make the same bid. A high-tech solution is to use a jump to 4D for one type of raise and 4H for the other.

Anyway as East I promptly bid 4NT and then 6H when partner showed no Aces. Diamonds split 3-3 so twelve tricks were easy. I think West was lucky to catch East with such good controls, but the slam seems to require only that diamonds split 3-3 or hearts split 2-2 and diamonds no worse than 3-1.

Board 16 West Deals E-W Vul	♠ J 9 7 5 4 ♥ 8 7 3 ♦ A 10 3 ♣ J 3
♠ 2 ♥ — ♦ K Q J 9 7 ♣ A 10 9 8 7 6 2	N W E S	♠ A K 10 8 ♥ K Q J 10 9 2 ♦ 5 4 2 ♣ —
	♠ Q 6 3 ♥ A 6 5 4 ♦ 8 6 ♣ K Q 5 4

West has 5-7 shape this time and of course opens the longer suit. This is unequivocally worth opening with an Ace, two quick tricks, ten hcp concentrated in the long suits, and good intermediates in clubs. West can expect to take at least eight tricks opposite any dummy.

East responds 1H; I considered a strong 2H but the club void suggests wasted values. I would rebid 2C with the West hand, limiting the hand; this may leave the diamonds on the shelf but unless partner has four of them the seven-card suit is probably better. East counts a likely seven tricks (five hearts and two top spades); there may be another spade trick if partner has as little as the Jack or a doubleton, but the club rebid is discouraging. East may jump in hearts, highly encouraging but not strictly forcing, or optimistically bid 4H. West will pass either bid.

My partner, however, proceeded to show 5-6 shape despite the minimal values:

1C-1H; 2D-2H; 3D-? Expecting a stronger hand, I bid 4NT and then 6H (the known strong suit) over the one-Ace reply. Textbooks advise against using Blackwood with a void since you cannot tell whether partner’s Ace faces your void, but I did not expect in an unfamiliar partnership to be able to find out anything more specific. The slam would’ve been excellent if partner had either red Ace. Opposite no Aces the five level would be relatively safe. Once again partner bid his hand to the max in terms of playing strength; not as successful this time ut the club void in my hand was a bit of poor luck.

Board 19 South Deals E-W Vul	♠ Q 9 6 ♥ J 5 3 ♦ 10 7 6 2 ♣ A 9 3
♠ K J 10 7 5 ♥ A Q 10 7 ♦ K 5 4 ♣ 8	N W E S	♠ A 8 4 3 2 ♥ 4 ♦ A ♣ K Q J 10 4 2
	♠ — ♥ K 9 8 6 2 ♦ Q J 9 8 3

Yet another freak hand slam. West opens 1S and East has the perfect hand for Key Card Blackwood – the only cards of interest are the King of trumps and two missing Aces. With ten trumps, you aren’t concerned about the Queen. West replies 5H (two without the Queen) or, playing simple Blackwood, 5D (one Ace.) East promptly bids the slam. This is one every E/W ought to reach. Whether it makes or not depends on how declarer tackles trumps. North likely cashes the Ace of clubs (which is why the “Ace promises the King” assumption doesn’t apply at the slam level, and experts revert to King from either AK or KQ.) North should then want declarer to lead a trump from his hand toward the Ace (and be sure to duck smoothly if declarer leads the Jack or ten.) A club or diamond will put the lead in dummy, and it would be natural for declarer to then lead a low trump toward his hand; South’s discard gives the show away. So North should continue with a heart, confident declarer will win in his hand. Declarer probably leads the Jack toward dummy (hoping North will cover), rises with the Ace and concedes down one. It really looks like a guess. Trumps will split 2-1 78% of the time and declarer should guess at least half the 3-0 splits, so this is roughly an 89% slam.

Board 21 North Deals N-S Vul	♠ A J ♥ A 8 7 3 2 ♦ A Q 8 ♣ 10 8 5
♠ 9 4 2 ♥ 9 6 4 ♦ 10 9 7 2 ♣ 9 3 2	N W E S	♠ K Q 10 7 3 ♥ Q J ♦ J 5 3 ♣ K 7 4
	♠ 8 6 5 ♥ K 10 5 ♦ K 6 4 ♣ A Q J 6

North opens 1NT (modern style) or 1H (old-fashioned.) The only reason I can see for preferring 1H is that the wrong major may be reached if partner has five spades and three hearts, but without a small doubleton I prefer the range-defining 1NT. If you open 1H and partner raises, you will be obliged to make a game try with these values and yet 3H may prove too high.

South adds his 13 to opener’s 15-17 and simply bids 3NT – 28-30 with no special shape isn’t worth chasing slam. What if East overcalls? I wouldn’t; East has a good lead against notrump. Overcalling notrump with 5332 shape is in principle very risky – you have a poor ratio of offense to defense. However, so many pairs give up any prospect of punishing you by playing “stolen bid” doubles; others play “negative”, so West may be able to butt in safely. And what does South do over 2S? I like to play double shows values: 8+ balanced; North can bid 2NT or 3H and South raises either to game. Barring that agreement the usual advice is for South to bid 3NT, trusting partner to have the suit stopped; most of the time that works, as it does today. Those playing lebensohl have two different paths to 3NT, but I question the value of being forced to the four level when you have the points for game but no stopper. What South should not do is agonize; this is a common problem and you should absolutely bid 3NT unless you have a clear, previously determined alternative.

On East’s spade lead North has to decide how wide-open he wants to play the hand. Either the hearts or clubs must be brought in without East getting in to cash his spades. If East did not overcall, it’s a fair bet he does not have a six-card suit and the King of clubs on the side – so a holdup won’t help. North wins the first spade, tests the hearts by cashing the Ace, intending to finesse if West drops the Queen or Jack. When East drops one instead, another heart picks up the suit. Now declarer clears the diamonds, ending in hand, and cashes the last two hearts, pitching spades from dummy. If East has the King of clubs he can’t guard that and hold on to his spades, so it will either show up when you finally lead clubs or you can finesse without risking the contract. Good technique earns +710.

If East did overcall, there’s a good chance he has six spades, so declarer holds up the first round and, proceeding as above, settles for +690. At 4H declarer has no need to hold up and should land in the middle with +710.

Board 23 South Deals Both Vul	♠ Q 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 7 5 2 ♦ — ♣ K J 4 3
♠ K J 7 ♥ 8 6 3 ♦ Q 7 5 4 ♣ 10 8 2	N W E S	♠ 8 3 ♥ A Q J 9 ♦ 10 9 2 ♣ A 9 7 6
	♠ A 10 9 6 ♥ 4 ♦ A K J 8 6 3 ♣ Q 5

South opens 1D, North responds 1H and South rebids 1S. North has a good, shapely raise but the void in opener’s first suit suggests some wasted values. Also, North is lacking in Aces and one or the other of his Kings may be opposite shortness (South, having bid two suits, will often have a singleton in one of the others.) I think 3S is right with North’s cards; if you happen to play that forcing, North can temporize with 2C and then support spades. In any case South, with 14 hcp, good shape and three quick tricks, continues to game.

When the enemy lands in their third suit, there will often be a crossruff, and West must decide between a trump lead or the fourth suit. West does have a diamond value to protect but leading from KJx of trumps will usually cost a trick. West leads a club: high, low or middle depending on style. East wins and shifts to a trump to protect his strong heart holding. I'm out of time to analyze this one; declarer can try for a crossruff or to set up the long diamonds. One play that clearly works is to run the Jack of diamonds (before or after cashing the AK.) East's 10-9 get smothered and West's Queen can be ruffed out. Other possibilities include trying to ruff two diamonds or ruffing one and conceding one, if declarer is able to discard his losing heart. I haven't been able to work out the timing on either of those lines.