Sunday, November 27, 2011

Sunday, November 27th 2011

Right-click here for hands.

Board 12: West opens 1S and North overcalls 2C (or doubles.)  East has four-card support, a void, and an excellent source of tricks in hearts. This is a difficult hand to value properly using point-count methods -- add 5 for the void, but how useful is the Queen of clubs? The December ACBL Bulletin has an article about losing trick count (LTC) but I consider the methods presented there to be too crude for serious use. What I generally use is George Rosenkranz's Loser-Cover Card method. An opening bid will typically have 7 losers and/or provide about 4 cover cards. Here, East can count 2 spade losers, one heart if North has either the King or Queen, no diamond losers and up to 3 clubs (A-K-ruff if partner has 3 small.) It's reasonable to hope partner has AQxxx xx xxx Axx, in which case North cannot attack clubs and the heart suit can be developed in time to pitch clubs from West's hand and then ruff them. Of course, AQxxx xx AJx xxx would put even 4S in jeopardy. East wants to support spades, leave room for slam exploration, but not take the bidding past 4S without a club cue-bid from West.

East is too strong for a direct leap to 4S;  4D as a splinter gives a fair picture. Should splinters apply in competition? I believe so, but you must have a clear rule. Normally a splinter is a "double-jump", such as 1S-4D. 2D shows diamonds, 3D is a weak or strong jump shift according to style, 4D is an odd-sounding bid not very useful in any natural sense, and modern American bidders overwhelming favor it as a singleton-showing raise, typically 11-14 hcp or somewhat less with a void.

My rule is that over competition, a bid is a splinter if (1) it would've been a splinter if the opponent had passed, and (2) it's still a jump. 1S-(2C or dbl)-4D qualifies. Be sure to discuss this with partner before trotting such a bid out at the table -- most gadget bids are OFF over competition, don't assume partner will read 4D correctly here.

Assuming 4D is clearly a splinter, West is delighted -- East should be able to ruff two diamonds, and West has an extra trump. Ideal would be a cue-bidding sequnce to make sure there aren't two fast heart losers, but 5C carries the bidding past 4NT, so I think 4NT Blackwood or RKCB is the practical bid. East replies with 1 Ace or 2 Key cards and West bids the excellent slam. North leads a high diamond, ruffed in dummy; declarer plays two rounds of trumps (ending in hand) and finesses a heart. South wins and switches to clubs, but declarer grabs the Ace, finesses again in hearts, and pitches his remaining losers on the long hearts.

Board 18: East opens 1S and West examines his "mixed bag": 9 hcp and a singleton, but no Ace and the singleton is a King. Looks like a maximum 2S raise to me, under the sound rule that you shouldn't count both high cards and short-suit values in the same suit. With the raise, East counts zero spade losers, one heart, and 2 to 4 diamonds. Contrary to the Bulletin article, it is possible to lose four tricks in one suit, and Qxxx is frequently worse than two losers. Even so, counting diamonds as 3 losers leaves only 4, and a simple raise will usually cover 2 or 3 losers. A reasonable dummy might be xxx Kxx KJx xxxx. Anything partner has in clubs, however, will be wasted. A "self-splinter" to 4C will help partner decide which cards he has are useful. Again, don't try this without discussion; just because you've agreed 1S-4C to be a splinter doesn't mean partner will understand 1S-2S-4C to be a splinter. The logic, however, is that 3C would be more or less natural and forcing; if you wanted to portray a two-suiter, you could bid 3C and then 4C. So a direct 4C is not needed to show clubs and the splinter agreement is sensible.

West loves his hand after the splinter: now the singleton King is likely to be worth a full five or six points, combining with diamond values in East's hand. West can count a likely 4 cover cards, (the two Kings, the Queen, and a diamond ruff), more than expected for a simple raise. West could bid 4NT, but I think it's generally unnecessary to risk the five level with zero Key cards. Instead, West cue-bids 4D. And here's why 4NT by West is unnecessary -- if partner has 4 key cards (or 3 plus a void as here), he should proceed to slam given any encouragement. East can simply bid 6S over 4D; 4NT doesn't really help, since the Ace of clubs is the least useful high card West could have, and grand slam is not reasonable after the simple raise. (It's cetainly possible West has AKJxx in diamonds, but 4NT won't tell you that.)

South surely leads from his QJ109xx in hearts, although it happens today that a trump lead kills the slam, since East must ruff two diamonds.

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